Model Nigeria's debt-to-GDP trajectory under your own growth and interest rate assumptions. IMF-style DSA arithmetic with optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic fan-chart projections to 2029.
Historical actuals (solid) + 2025–2029 scenario fan (shaded)
Nigeria's nominal debt/GDP appears contained (~27%), but the interest/revenue ratio has exceeded the IMF's high-risk threshold of 22% — a reflection of low revenue mobilisation rather than high debt stock.
| Year | Optimistic Debt/GDP | Baseline Debt/GDP | Pessimistic Debt/GDP | Baseline Int/Rev | Baseline Prim Bal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.5% | 31.5% | 33.0% | 29.8% | -2.5% |
| 2026 | 33.7% | 35.9% | 39.1% | 33.9% | -2.5% |
| 2027 | 37.1% | 40.6% | 45.8% | 38.3% | -2.5% |
| 2028 | 40.6% | 45.5% | 52.9% | 43.0% | -2.5% |
| 2029 | 44.2% | 50.7% | 60.7% | 47.9% | -2.5% |
Debt accumulation follows the IMF DSA identity: d(t) = [(1+r)/(1+g)] × d(t−1) − pb(t), where r is the nominal interest rate, g is nominal GDP growth, and pb is the primary balance as % of GDP. A foreign-currency stock-flow adjustment is added for FX-denominated debt under naira depreciation. Optimistic/pessimistic scenarios shift GDP growth by ±1.5pp, interest rate by ∓0.5/+1.0pp, and primary balance by ±0.5/∓0.8pp. Historical data from DMO and NBS.